South Africa’s tourism numbers may be edging back to pre-pandemic levels, but beneath the surface lies a far more troubling story of lost ground, missed opportunities, and fierce competition from Africa’s rising stars.

• South Africa welcomed 5.85-million tourists from January to July 2025, but still lags 13% behind global recovery levels.
• Lost overseas visitors have cost South Africa an estimated R13.3-billion in foreign spending in 2024 alone.
• Hotel performance shows Cape Town booming with record rates, while Sandton and other regions struggle to recover.
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The numbers tell a sobering story. South Africa welcomed 5.85-million international tourists between January and July 2025, a 14% increase over the same period in 2024. On the surface, this looks like a win. South Africa is just 33’000 visitors – barely 1% – short of 2019 figures. But this apparent recovery masks a more complex reality: the country remains far behind global peers and is at risk of losing its hard-earned standing as Africa’s premier destination.

The release of BDO South Africa’s Tourism Trends Report comes at a pivotal moment for the industry, just ahead of the annual Tourism Business Council of South Africa (TBCSA) Tourism Leadership Conference held at Sun City Resort in the North West. This year’s theme, “Matters of Tourism: Growth, People, and Policy,” captured both the urgency and opportunity of the sector. In a noteworthy move, Minister of Home Affairs Dr Leon Schreiber publicly presented progress on the long-awaited Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA). Powered by machine learning, the ETA promises to digitise and automate visa processes, reducing inefficiency and fraud – an important step if South Africa is serious about remaining competitive.

But while forward-thinking policies slowly emerge, Johannesburg Tourism Company unveiled a new logo designed to rebrand the city as a global destination. The launch, however, raises the question: is this marketing sheen without structural substance? Residents and visitors alike are navigating pothole-ridden streets, intermittent power and water supply, poor public transport, and widespread concerns about crime. A new visual identity cannot mask urban decay? For a city to attract visitors, it must first work for its residents.

The Competitive Reality Check

Globally, international tourism returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with growth exceeding 12%. By contrast, South Africa crawled forward at just 5.1%, leaving the country 13% below its 2019 arrivals. Worse still, regional competitors have surged ahead. Kenya hit 2019 levels in 2023, Tanzania surpassed them in 2022 and achieved 18% growth in 2024, and Morocco has stormed ahead to claim the top spot in Africa with 17.4-million arrivals last year – a staggering 20% increase.

The comparative trajectory is stark. In 2016, Morocco welcomed 10.3-million visitors, South Africa 10-million, and Tunisia 5.7-million. Today, Morocco leads comfortably, Tunisia has climbed to second place with 10.3-million, while South Africa has slipped to third.
South Africa used to be the leading destination in Africa in terms of number of tourist arrivals. And we’re now third. And it’s not just third – we haven’t even got back to our 2019 numbers. Morocco, which had the same arrivals as us in 2016, has surged ahead to 17 million. We’ve been outpaced.

// Advisory Partner for Tourism at BDO South Africa, Lee-Anne Bac

Lee-Anne points to stagnation since 2010, a decade punctuated by bursts of growth, setbacks, and what she calls “own goals.” Despite South Africa’s natural beauty, cultural richness, and world-class hospitality, the country has failed to translate its assets into sustainable growth. Geography is part of the story – Europe enjoys a vast, wealthy market on its doorstep – but it is not the whole story. South Africa, she argues, has failed to fully leverage its own regional markets.

We’ve tended to see neighbouring countries as economic travellers – here to shop, here to spend – but not as true tourists. That’s a mistake.

// Advisory Partner for Tourism at BDO South Africa, Lee-Anne Bac

The Overseas Market Crisis

Nowhere is the malaise clearer than in overseas arrivals. Just 1.3-million overseas visitors came to South Africa in the first seven months of 2025, putting the country 10% behind 2019 levels and 12% behind 2018. The economic consequences are sobering. Some 183’000 “lost” overseas visitors translated into R4.3-billion in foregone direct foreign spending in just the first half of this year. In 2024, the full-year shortfall cost the economy an estimated R13.3-billion.

Key source markets reveal the crisis. Chinese tourism remains catastrophic, with just 23’600 arrivals between January and July – less than half of 2019 levels – despite the much-publicised Trusted Tour Operator Scheme introduced in February. India, once touted as a growth market, is still 27% down on 2019. Europe presents a mixed bag: France at 79% of 2019, Germany at 87%, Italy at 90%. Even the United States, South Africa’s single largest overseas source market, shows signs of fatigue, posting just 3% growth year-on-year.

The African Market: A Silver Lining

Against this backdrop, the African market offers hope. From January to July 2025, South Africa welcomed 4.55-million visitors from the continent, surpassing 2019 levels by 3%. Policy shifts have played a critical role. After South Africa and Ghana introduced mutual visa waivers in 2023, Ghanaian arrivals doubled, with visitors spending an average of R24’000 per trip. Kenya’s arrivals exceeded 2019 levels by 58% in 2024, with per-visitor spending averaging R18’500. Improved connectivity has also borne fruit: African air arrivals were up 16% on 2019 in the first seven months of 2025.

Yet gaps remain. Angola and Nigeria – two markets with high potential – remain 40% and 39% down on 2019 levels respectively, while Egypt and Uganda trail by smaller margins. Unlocking these markets requires a sustained focus on visas, connectivity, and tailored experiences.

Cape Town’s Air Access Victory

The Cape Town Air Access Strategy illustrates what strategic focus can achieve. Overseas arrivals through Cape Town International Airport exceeded 2019 levels by 21% in the first seven months of 2025. OR Tambo International Airport, by contrast, lagged 21% behind. But the victory is bittersweet. As Lee-Anne cautions, Cape Town has succeeded in shifting arrivals rather than expanding the total market. It is a proof of concept, not yet a full recovery.

Hotels Reflect Market Shifts

Hotel performance mirrors these broader dynamics. Cape Town’s 5-star properties are thriving, with average room rates 41% higher in real terms than 2019 and revenue per available room (RevPAR) climbing to R4’000. In contrast, Sandton’s 5-star hotels languish with RevPAR of just R1’100, 20% below 2019 levels in real terms. The mid-market tells a similar story. Four-star hotels in Cape Town have grown rates by 40% over 2019, while KwaZulu-Natal lags 14% behind. Three-star hotels are struggling almost everywhere outside Cape Town, with Sandton seeing a 45% RevPAR decline.

What Needs to Change

The lesson is clear: South Africa cannot market its way out of this crisis. The challenges are structural and require economy-wide solutions. Lee-Anne argues that infrastructure must come first – reliable roads, basic services, and functioning urban spaces. Safety and cleanliness are not “tourism issues” but citizen issues.

We need to make it right for South Africans first. Tourists want to do what locals do. If locals are locked behind high walls, that’s not an appealing destination.

// Advisory Partner for Tourism at BDO South Africa, Lee-Anne Bac

South Africa must also rethink its positioning. Tourism today is shaped not just by geography but by lifestyle and life stage. Competitors are nimble, offering curated experiences for diverse travellers. South Africa’s products need similar innovation, underpinned by skilled and passionate workers. At a policy level, priorities should include a coherent global brand campaign to restore South Africa’s image, an Air Access Development Fund to connect underserved markets, and deeper collaboration between business, government, and communities to tackle crime and decay. Most of all, tourism must be seen not as a side industry but as central to economic recovery. Its job creation potential, foreign exchange earnings, and ability to stimulate regional development make it indispensable.

The Fundamental Shift

Tourism does not operate in isolation. Energy insecurity, governance weaknesses, and manufacturing stagnation all feed into the sector’s struggles. But tourism, with its broad multiplier effect, has the power to unlock growth across the economy. South Africa’s competitors are proving that recovery is possible, even transformative.

The choice now is stark. Adapt to new realities with urgency and unity, or watch as the growth, jobs, and opportunities South Africa desperately need are claimed by others. The numbers, for all their detail, tell us this much: South Africa is running out of time to turn potential into performance.

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